Desjardins Securities may be one of the few observers to stick with its forecast of no – repeat, no – U.S. recession in 2008. But if there is a recession, metal markets should be able to absorb the shock, according to John Redstone, an analyst at Desjardins.
“In our view, a U.S. recession would have much less impact on metal markets than in previous cycles,” he said in a note to clients. “Indeed, we would argue that metal consumption in the U.S. has already been reduced to a recessionary level.”
He showed that U.S. copper demand fell 4 per cent in 2007, aluminum demand fell 6 per cent, nickel demand fell 7 per cent and zinc demand fell 10 per cent – and Mr. Redstone does not expect a significant rebound through to 2009, when demand will still be below 2006 levels. Yet prices for these base metals have remained strong thanks to continuing demand from other places. (Yes, China.)
Still, the stock market appears to have a different view. Equities of commodity producers are underperforming their underlying commodities out of concern about the U.S. economy. According to Mr. Redstone, the mines and metals sub-index of producers had risen just 9.5 per cent for the 12 months ended Mar. 7, 2008. But over the same period, the London Metals Exchange Index of actual commodities rose 28 per cent.
“We believe the upward metal price movements on the LME in part reflect a more positive view for incremental world metal demand as driven by the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China),” Mr. Redstone said. “Ultimately, the more positive market supply/demand fundamentals for base metals worldwide should reassert themselves in higher share prices for companies on the mines and metals sub-index.”
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